With a number of factors continuing to grip the stock markets, we see potential for higher equity prices in the near-term but lower overall returns next year, especially compared to the past few abnormally high-return years.

In response to the economic devastation from the COVID-19 pandemic, the avalanche of grants, loans, and government stimulus provided to businesses and individuals, has been unprecedented.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has been widespread, affecting all aspects of the economy and government. However, during the post vaccination period, we believe pent-up demand for virtually everything outside the home will provide a springboard for a dramatic economic recovery in the 2nd half of 2021.

In response to the economic devastation from the COVID-19 pandemic, the avalanche of grants, loans, and government stimulus provided to businesses and individuals, has been unprecedented.

We believe the recently approved coronavirus stimulus package combined with the Federal Reserve’s ability and willingness to print trillions of dollars should help cushion a longer and steeper downturn.

For the first time in U.S. history, the U.S. economy started and ended an entire decade without a recession. While the market vacillated between risk-on and risk-off at various times throughout the year, in the end stocks and bonds had an extraordinary run in 2019, posting their biggest simultaneous gains in over two decades.

The ongoing market volatility from an abundance of changing data points (oil prices, U.S.-China trade dispute, and interest rates) has introduced additional market risk.

Equity markets produced a significant reversal in the 1st quarter of 2019 following one of the worst periods of performance to close out 2018. While we do not believe a recession is imminent, the markets are at an inflection point.